The National Institute of Economic and Social Research’s latest GDP tracker predicts that the UK economy expanded by 0.4% in August-October, down from the 0.6% growth racked up in the third quarter.
NIESR also believes the economy will run at a similar rate until the end of 2018, and cautions not to get carried away by the stronger growth this summer.
- In our view, UK economic growth peaked in the third quarter of this year and will settle at a rate that is close to its post-crisis average in the final quarter.
- According to new ONS statistics published this morning, the UK economy expanded by 0.6 per cent in the third quarter (three months to September) after growing by 0.4 per cent in the second quarter (three months to June). The outturn was slightly lower than the 0.7 per cent monthly GDP forecast that we published last month for the same period and the error is partly because of back data revisions. Building on the official data, our monthly GDP Tracker suggests that the economy will expand by 0.4 in the final quarter of this year.
- The apparent strength in third quarter growth masks a loss in momentum in industrial production as well as services output in the latter part of the third quarter. There are a number of factors at play, including Brexit-related uncertainty.
Source: The Guardian